R19 Preview: Brisbane Bullets vs Perth Wildcats

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Wednesday 19 May

Where: Nissan Arena, Brisbane

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
Perth 102 (Blanchfield 31, Cotton 24, Norton 24) d Brisbane 90 (Sobey 24, Cadee 14, Drmic 11) Round 18, Nissan Arena

This was a crunch game for Brisbane and after a slow start they were playing like it, leading by seven just before the final break and by three with six minutes remaining in the game. Then they leaked 26 points in the next 5:30 in a remarkable defensive capitulation that saw former Crocs buddies Mitch Norton and Todd Blanchfield team with MVP Bryce Cotton to score 25 of those, notching 3-of-3 from the arc and 8-of-9 from the foul line.

The now
Perth went 15-of-29 from the arc that night to exploit Brisbane’s season-long woes defending the arc, which are likely to cost them a playoff berth unless they can win at least six of their final eight games. While departing coach Andrej Lemanis is widely recognised as one of the best offensive coaches on the planet, he hasn’t been able to solve his team’s defensive issues, something the Cats have exploited to the tune of 95.3ppg at 47 per cent.

After a lean stretch through April, Perth have piled in 95ppg at 48 per cent over their past four games, hitting 37-of-80 from the three-point line in their three wins. Melbourne restricted their perimeter game, but Cotton and Co responded with 67 points from ones and twos to suggest their counters are back in full flow. This has been most obvious in final quarters, where their 41-24 domination of Brisbane continued a long-running trend.

The stats

 - The Wildcats have won their past two final periods 65-37, and New Zealand is the only team to beat them in a fourth quarter since the first week of March

 - In their eight losses this season, Perth have averaged 7.4 triples at 29 per cent. In three games against the Bullets, they’ve nailed 11.3 at 49 per cent

 - The Bullets rank last in opposition three-point makes, defensive three-point percentage, turnovers forced, opposition assists and opposition o-boards

 - There have been eight scores of 100 or more in regulation in Brisbane’s 28 contests (29% of games). In the other 107 NBL games this season there have been just 13 scores in triple figures (12%)

The key men

Lamar Patterson – Despite shooting a wayward 10-of-33 against Perth this season, Patterson has added 29 points, 20 boards and 9 dimes in 59 minutes. He racked up 60 points at 55 per cent, 18 rebounds and 7 assists in his final two games against the Wildcats last year, showing the capacity to demolish Perth’s vaunted defence, and given Brisbane haven’t been able to stop the Cats, an LP offensive explosion might be their best bet.

Mitch Norton – Perth’s Mighty Mouse leads them in steals, is second in assists and third in boards, but the last time he scored 24 points professionally was for the NZ NBL’s Southland Sharks in 2016. He’d never achieved that feat in the Hungry Jack’s NBL until Brisbane made him the scorer they were prepared to live with. Well they died by that sword, Norton matching counterpart Nathan Sobey’s tally and doing it at 67 per cent from the floor.

The Quotes

Coach Lemanis will be imploring his team for more of the same in Wednesday’s rematch, hopeful their luck will change.

“We were 44 points in the paint from 41 attempts, so it’s not like we weren’t going to the rim,” he said.

Where they need change is at the defensive end, especially defending the perimeter.

“Certainly (there were) some scout breakdowns that came back to bite us in critical moments,” Lemanis said.

“When you don’t execute some stuff you want to execute and that ends up in them sticking a three-ball, that really hurts and that’s hard to come back from. They shot the three-ball at 51 per cent.

“At the start of that fourth quarter they had the five guys who can shoot threes on, that group we had troubles defending them, obviously, we couldn’t get stops, we gave up seven threes in the fourth quarter.

“Some of that lies with me, we should have changed our defensive schemes earlier and adjusted to that group a little bit sooner and better.”

Brisbane have given up three-pointers at a dangerous rate all season, and given long shots often lead to long rebounds, it’s no surprise they have also leaked o-boards.

Given Perth miss the second-most three-pointers and pull in the most offensive rebounds, it’s a huge issue for the Bullets, but one they showed they could deal with last round.

“I thought the start we gave up something like nine offensive rebounds in that first quarter, that was an area of concern,” Lemanis said.

“I thought we were often hearts in the right place in terms of coming into rebound, but perhaps that was a coaching, scouting thing, we needed to stay more connected to them on the perimeter because they were tapping out a lot.

“We made that adjustment and I think they had two offensive rebounds in the second half.”